Sky price

By David, TechFlow   Yesterday, Hyperliquid released a new proposal, HIP-4. Amidst the bombardment of various live coins and buyback narratives, this proposal does not seem to have stimulated much discussion in the crypto community; However, upon closer examination of the proposal's content, we found that its content points to another hot narrative in the crypto market recently, the --- prediction market. At the heart of the proposal is the launch of a new trading product called "Event Perpetuals" (event contracts). In short, Hyperliquid wants to add binary prediction market functionality to its perpetual contract exchange. Users can bet on events such as "whether the Fed will raise interest rates" or "whether a token will be listed on Binance this month". It is worth noting that Hyperliquid's proposal has an interesting lineup of writers: investors from Framework Ventures, team members from prediction market platform Kalshi, and developers from Felix Protocol and Asula Labs. "Competitors are involved in developing solutions" are rare, and Kalshi itself is one of the major players in the U.S. compliance prediction market. This may suggest that Hyperliquid's prediction market business may not be trying to disrupt existing players, but rather to seek some form of collaboration or differentiation. As the absolute leader in the perpetual contract track, Hyperliquid launched HIP-4 at this time, whether it sees the huge potential of the prediction market and wants to get a piece of the pie, or is it looking for new narrative support for the HYPE ecosystem? Now it's a convenient business The 2024 U.S. election catapulted Polymarket to fame, with trading volume exceeding $3.6 billion. Entering 2025, prediction markets are even more capital darlings: Polymarket has just returned to the U.S. market with the acquisition of QCEX for $1.12 billion, and Kalshi has teamed up with Robinhood to launch a prediction market function, with monthly trading volume stabilizing at more than $800 million. Even traditional financial giants are ready to move. Time magazine previously named Polymarket one of the "100 Most Influential Companies of 2025." The reason is simple: prediction markets are redefining the value discovery mechanism of information. In the face of such market heat, will Hyperliquid not be tempted? While HIP-4 is currently just a proposal that still needs community voting and technical validation, it is clearly not a whim judging by the level of detail of the proposal and the lineup of participants. More importantly, for Hyperliquid, this may be a "handy" business. First, the technology is highly reusable. Prediction markets and perpetual contracts are highly similar in technical architecture: they both require order books, matching engines, and margin systems. For Hyperliquid, the development cost of adding Event Perpetuals is relatively low, and the cost of trial and error is controllable. Even if the final effect is not as expected, it will not have much impact on the main business. Secondly, there is a natural overlap in user groups. Traders who play perpetual contracts and bettors who play prediction markets are speculators by nature. They chase volatility, enjoy uncertainty, and are willing to bet on their own judgment. Hyperliquid has gathered a large number of such users, why not give them more games to play? Finally, the HYPE ecosystem needs new stories. As one of the most successful DEXs of 2024, Hyperliquid's perpetual contract business is quite mature. But the capital market always expects growth, and the HYPE token also needs more use cases to support valuation. Prediction markets are not only a potentially good business, but also a good story – it's sexy enough, imaginative enough, and hot enough. This is not so much a strategic transformation as a low-cost product line test. became, opening up a new track; No, the original basic plate is still there. HIP-4: Clever Product Extension Let's first understand a core question: Why can't Hyperliquid add prediction markets directly to existing systems? A vivid example is given in the proposal: NFL game predictions. Let's say the prediction title is "Will the Chiefs win the Super Bowl". If you use the traditional perpetual contract method, you need to continuously feed the oracle price, and the odds are updated every 3 seconds. But the problem is, the odds of sports games do not change continuously. After an offensive and defensive round, the odds can jump instantaneously. HIP-3 (Hyperliquid's existing market deployment specification) limits price changes of up to 1% per tick. This means that if the result of the match is determined, the price jumps from 0.5 to 1.0, which takes a full 50 minutes to complete. During this period, traders who know the outcome can easily arbitrage. That's why Event Perpetuals in the new HIP-4 proposal is needed. Event Perpetuals removes the two core mechanisms of perpetual contracts: continuous oracles and funding rates. The price is determined entirely by market transactions, and the final result (0 or 1) is determined only by an oracle at the end of the event. Interesting designs include: Opening auction mechanism: 15-minute call auction to avoid initial price confusion 1x isolated margin: No leverage, reduce the risk of liquidation Slot reuse: New markets can be deployed immediately after market settlement, improving capital efficiency On the surface, this is a technological innovation; Essentially, this could be a business test that Hyperliquid wants to do. The attempt to go from a single product to a product matrix is obvious. No matter how successful the perpetual contract is, it is just a product. If Event Perpetuals runs, it means that Hyperliquid's infrastructure can support more financial products: Today is a prediction market, tomorrow it could be options, and the day after tomorrow it could be a structured product. What's more, Hyperliquid chose a smart way to expand: let someone else create the market. According to the proposal, any team that wants to create a prediction market on Hyperliquid (referred to as a "Builder" in the proposal) will need to stake 1 million HYPE tokens. These Builders are responsible for: Decide what market to create (e.g., "Will Trump buy Bitcoin") Set market parameters (settlement time, oracle source, etc.) Maintaining market operations (providing initial liquidity, promotion, etc.) In return, Builders receive up to 50% of the trading fee share of this market. This design is ingenious. Hyperliquid does not need to judge "what predicts the market will be popular", but lets the market decide. Teams willing to stake 1 million HYPE will naturally carefully choose markets with liquidity potential. If no one plays the marketplace created by the Builder, the opportunity cost of the Builder is lost; If the market is hot, Hyperliquid and Builder are a win-win. This explains why the Kalshi team was involved in writing this HIP-4 proposal. They may be exactly the kind of professional builders that Hyperliquid wants to attract. Kalshi has proven experience in market operations and knows what kind of prediction markets are liquid. If they are willing to come to Hyperliquid to create a market, they will bring not only a market, but a proven operating methodology. For a DEX with a TVL of more than $2 billion, such a trial-and-error model is quite smart. Challenges and opportunities In theory, it seems logical for DEXs to make predictions about the market. The technical architecture is highly reused. Order book, matching engine, settlement system, margin management... These core components of perpetual contract DEXs are also needed by the prediction market. But the reality may not be that simple. The dynamism of prediction markets comes from the diverse markets created by users. On Polymarket, any user can create a marketplace, and this UGC model keeps the platform fresh and topical. Hyperliquid's HIP-4 proposal requires staking 1 million HYPE to create a marketplace. At current prices, this equates to a multi-million dollar threshold. While this ensures market quality and avoids junk market proliferation, it can also stifle innovation and diversity. Another challenge is the dispersion of liquidity. Perpetual contracts can share liquidity, and the depth of ETH/USD can support all ETH-related transactions. But prediction markets don't, each event is an independent pool of funds. This means that even if Hyperliquid has a $2 billion TVL spread across hundreds or thousands of prediction markets, the depth of each market may be limited. Shallow liquidity can lead to excessive slippage and poor user experience. In addition, users know that Polymarket and Kalshi are prediction markets when they see them, and Hyperliquid is still the mental positioning of perpetual DEX in the crypto world. So, where are the opportunities for Hyperliquid? Some predictions focused on the crypto vertical may be the most realistic path. For example, whether a token will be listed on a major CEX this month, and whether Ethereum's key upgrade will be delayed... These markets, Hyperliquid users are more knowledgeable, interested, and willing to bet on than Polymarket users. Is it good for $HYPE? In the short term, the impact may be limited. First of all, this is just a proposal and has not yet been officially implemented. Even if it passes a vote, it will take at least a few months from development to launch to actual revenue. There may be some anticipatory hype in the market, but it is difficult to bring sustained price support. Second, there is uncertainty about the size of the forecast market's revenue. Even if Hyperliquid were to grab 10% of the market share ($80 million in monthly trading volume) from Polymarket, it would still earn $80,000 per month based on the DEX's usual 0.1% fee rate. For a multi-billion dollar project, this increment is minimal. But in the medium to long term, the significance may go beyond finance itself. First, the increase in staking demand. If HIP-4 successfully attracts 10-20 Builders to create a marketplace, it means that 1000-20 million HYPE are locked. Although the relative total supply is not large, this is a real reduction in circulation. More importantly, it proves the value of HYPE as a "license" – holding HYPE not only participates in governance, but also gains access to business opportunities. Second, expand brand value. If a team of professionals like Kalshi is truly willing to stake HYPE to create a marketplace, it sends a strong signal that professional prediction market brands recognize the future of Hyperliquid. This endorsement effect may be more valuable than direct revenue contribution. The crypto market is never short of money, what is missing is stories. The story of perpetual contract DEXs is over, and if they can successfully enter the prediction market, each additional possibility will add one more variable to the valuation model. Explore the boundaries of DEXs What I find interesting about the HIP-4 proposal is an interesting trend: DEXs are testing their boundaries. From simple token swaps, to perpetual contracts, and now possible prediction markets, you can see that successful DEXs are always actively expanding, turning convenient business into a starting point for their own valuation and business. Moreover, this expansion is not like the popular crypto project gameplay before, and any change is eager to attract attention. It is more like a relatively low-key test, testing the boundaries of technology, testing user acceptance, and testing the tolerance of supervision. For those who follow Hyperliquid, the best way to do this is not to over-interpret individual proposals, but to focus on the trends behind them. HIP-4 itself may succeed or fail, but the direction it represents, such as the platformization, ecology, and integration of DEXs, is likely to be the future direction. Projects that successfully expand their boundaries will receive higher valuation multiples; Those who rest on their laurels will gradually be marginalized. As for whether Hyperliquid can get a piece of the prediction market with Event Perpetuals? Let the market answer. After all, this is a prediction worth betting on in itself.   Click to learn more about ChainCatcher's job openings   Recommended reading: With the official conclusion of DeFi iconic symbols MKR and DAI, how can SKY re-host market expectations? NAKA stock price plummeted 54% in one day, and the market is starting to get tired of DAT? Base Chain Coin Launch Coming Soon? 6 items to watch Return to the throne, Pump.fun Resurrection

By Wenser, Odaily Planet Daily   Last night, STBL, which focuses on the concept of "second-generation stablecoin + Tether joint innovation project", soared all the way after the official announcement of Binance Alpha, reaching a high of around $0.22, and rose by more than $0.3 on the chain this afternoon, and has now fallen back to around $0.17. On the other hand, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino said in a high-profile manner in recent days: "USDT has a total user base of nearly 500 million, an average daily trading volume of about $45 billion, an average daily transaction volume of 17 million, and a Tether profit margin of 99%. ” Who is SBTL sacred? Is it related to the stablecoin public chain Stable launched by Tether? Is the identity of Tether co-founder true? What is the background of STBL? Odaily will provide a detailed introduction and brief analysis of the above issues in this article. SBTL: The "second-generation stablecoin" led by the former CEO of Tether First of all, it should be clear that STBL has nothing to do with Tether's previously launched stablecoin L1 public chain Stable: the former was prepared and launched by Tether's former co-founder, former CEO, President of ReserveOne, CEO of M 3-Brigade Acquisition V Corp, WeFi Chairman Reeve Collins, and KAIO founder Avtar Sehra. In the future, the consumer stablecoin USST and the yield token YLD will be launched. The latter is launched by Tether, the issuer behind USDT, backed by Bitfinex and USDT 0, with Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino as an advisor, using USDT as the native gas on the chain, users can initiate transactions without holding platform currency, and P2P (peer-to-peer) USDT transfers are completely gas-free. Therefore, unlike many users who mistakenly believe that "STBL launches a new stablecoin for the stablecoin L1 public chain Stable", in fact, the only connection between STBL and Tether may be that its chairman and co-founder Reeve Collins participated in the operation of Realcoin (the predecessor of USDT) in 2013-2014 and briefly served as the CEO of the publisher company Tether. STBL official website page According to a long article previously published by Reeve Collins and relevant information on the STBL official website, the STBL ecosystem is mainly composed of: STBL is a governance token that allows holders to vote on collateral types, ratios, and upgrades, ensuring that STBL is secure, compliant, and community-driven, and it is worth mentioning that the token is completely non-custodial. USST is a consumer stablecoin backed by on-chain RWA collateral 1:1, instant, overcollateralized, with no hidden fees or lock-ups, and can be used on supported partner protocols and exchanges for trading, DeFi protocols, cross-chain bridging, and fund management. Currently supported collateral includes ONDO's USDY, OUSG, and BlackRock's BUIDL. YLD is an NFT that users can use to receive predetermined yield, primarily used to retain collateral yield and increase over time. In other words, unlike the operating model of "first-generation stablecoins" such as Tether and Circle, where issuers exclusively monopolize the interest or income generated by the reserve funds corresponding to the stablecoin, STBL uses YLD NFT to "return the relevant income to the people". Therefore, if the first generation of stablecoins (such as USDT, USDC) solves the problem of "how to build a reliable digital dollar on the blockchain", then the goal of the second generation of stablecoins (i.e., USST) is to financialize the US dollar. The principal and income are split into two programmable capital flows. ” In addition, SBTL is backed by Wave Digital Assets, a Los Angeles-based investment firm registered with the SEC, which has more than $1 billion in assets under management, after being spun off from a venture capital firm with a scale of up to $400 million and attracting attention for its risk-aware and regulated investments. STBL's ambition: it hurts the issuer, but the benefits are multifaceted At present, STBL's ambitions are not small, and its core lies in one sentence - distributing the business profits generated by stablecoin issuers with the help of reserve collateral such as U.S. bonds and gold to users, while institutions, governments, and DeFi protocols have access to a wider range of liquid assets. Specifically, the USST stablecoin of the STBL ecosystem and the "growth flywheel" of YLD NFT have certain benefits for different groups and roles: For consumers, holding USST stablecoins can ultimately contribute to the overall ecological network rather than just the issuer's interests. For institutions, USST and YLD can transform idle cash assets into transparent, compliant, and income-generating assets and cash flows. For sovereign governments, the issuance of USST will be a large sample case, which means that it can not only produce digital stablecoins bound to its own national debt to maintain national sovereignty; It can also release a new source of value that traditional fiat currencies cannot provide, that is, to realize the preservation and appreciation of the national currency. For DeFi protocols, the built-in income composable modules of the USST and YLD systems will provide more diversified and flexible support for various businesses such as derivatives and transfers. Summary: The future of STBL depends on USST circulation Although the "STBL-USST-YLD" ecosystem can operate smoothly at present, in the long run, the price performance of STBL as a governance token is still mainly determined by the scale of USST issuance and the corresponding collateral interest-bearing income. If YLD's returns are significant, USST will undoubtedly open up a new development path for the stablecoin market - a path that is different from Tether and Circle's exclusive collateral interest-bearing income; However, judging from the current size of the stablecoin market, the issuance of USST undoubtedly faces fierce competition and uncertain future.   Click to learn more about ChainCatcher's job openings   Recommended reading: With the official conclusion of DeFi iconic symbols MKR and DAI, how can SKY re-host market expectations? NAKA stock price plummeted 54% in one day, and the market is starting to get tired of DAT? Base Chain Coin Launch Coming Soon? 6 items to watch Return to the throne, Pump.fun Resurrection