Is Ethena Labs a yield-generating vault, a stablecoin project, or a new paradigm? It's important to know because that's how the market will price it. A never seen before analysis on Ethena's Shards to deliver the most insightful research - ------------------------------------------ Ethena recently crossed $600 mn in supply making it the third largest decentralized stablecoin. It has a points (sorry, shards) program to incentivize usage. As I did with the EigenLayer points, I model what could be the price, supply, and value of Ethena points to find the best opportunity. First, the price per Whales Market and Pendle YT both is ~$0.00025 per shard. Pendle YT price is highly variable and depends on when the incentives end. I model that USDe supply will reach $1 bn in late-March 2024 and expect incentives to end as per the project's blog. Shard supply is a little hard to model and is highly dependent on how the team allocates incentives. The latest epoch, $100 mn in Pendle liquidity should reach its target soon, and a new epoch will begin soon after. I model lower incentives as time progresses and therefore lower deposits. At the end of incentives, I estimate about ~190 billion in shard supply. Finally, the value of a shard. Depending on the narrative around the project, I expect it to be priced similar to MKR at ~$2 bn FDV when it finally launches. This would mean an upside of 200%+ from current price on Whales and Pendle. However, do note that the team has announced there won't a be a quick airdrop so there are some risks too. ------------------------------------------ My full report includes the model, the assumptions, the risks and more! Check the link in the next tweet