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What exactly is a prediction market? Don't rush to label it. If you ask me, the question itself is wrong. Go take a look at the current offerings in the market; betting on whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates is not the same as betting on when a certain celebrity will get divorced. The former is backed by real people locking in costs and hedging interest rate risks, following the logic of legitimate financial instruments. The latter can't even come up with a decent hedging reason; its essence is just like betting on a game of chance at a table. So prediction markets are never really "something"; they are a continuous spectrum, one end connected to derivatives and the other sliding into pure gambling. Now, with regulation hitting hard, no one cares how to draw that line; everyone is just fighting over "who gets to decide." The power to define, at the end of the day, is just the power to tax. #预测市场监管战：CFTC起诉多州争管辖权 Now let's look at Wang's rapid turnaround, faster than flipping a book. Previously, he was on a moral high ground criticizing gambling, and then he suddenly shouts, "America cannot fall behind." Do you really believe he suddenly understood automated market makers? Don't be ridiculous. He was just fed by Polymarket's data. During the election period, his winning probability was skyrocketing daily, while traditional polls were dragging their feet; over here, he was already being "crowned" in advance. Imagine, if someone sees themselves winning every day, how could they not develop a fondness for that number? This is more effective than tweeting and bragging; it comes with third-party endorsement, used to build momentum and solidify support, with emotional value directly maxed out. Plus, with a bunch of interests in the race around crypto, deregulation, and attracting young voters, he slapped his thigh and thought, "This gun must be carried." This is not a cognitive upgrade; it's a calculative shift—calculating votes and narratives, not contract pricing. Finally, if the Supreme Court really rules for federal exclusive jurisdiction, will there be a global migration? There will definitely be siphoning; platforms wanting licenses, wanting to negotiate with Wall Street, wanting to go the mainstream IPO route will rush back home overnight. Offshore giants like Polymarket might be the first to pack up and return, taking off their wild hats and putting on suits. But don't expect everyone to move; those contracts betting on "a certain celebrity's divorce next week" have compliance costs that could keep them playing for years. These types of things are inherently meant to stay in regulatory lowlands, hiding in some small Caribbean island or in the anonymous agreements of a certain blockchain, living wildly. So in the end, there won't be a grand reunion; there will only be a split. Those in suits and ties will go to America, while those running wild will continue in the shadows, becoming two parallel worlds, and in the future, no one should say anything to each other. The ruling in this case won't delineate jurisdiction; it will determine the soul of this track for the next twenty years. Will it be incorporated into a regular army, or will it continue to be wild dogs? Once the answer comes out, the appearance will be set. Let's wait and see. $BTC $ETH

Peace lasted less than two days. Iran made a strong gesture, first calling for a ceasefire, then opening the Strait, and finally discussing nuclear issues, clearly trying to create a way out. However, Trump took the proposal and without much hesitation, rejected it on the spot. The next day, the fear index plummeted from 47 to 33, and the market collectively panicked. But what concerns me most is not the rejection itself, but the three unsettling things hidden behind it. Regarding Trump—Is he applying pressure, or has he lost control? #美伊走向长期封锁：外交窗口关闭 At first, everyone thought this was the old script of maximum pressure: closing the Strait of Hormuz, choking oil exports, and continuously ramping up economic sanctions to force the opponent to the negotiating table. It seemed like Venezuela won that way. But Iran is not Venezuela; it has endured sanctions for decades, its internal regime machinery remains intact, and it can still rely on "dark ships" and gray networks to continue oil exports. Maximum pressure, once it pushes the opponent to the red line without breaking them, backfires on your own deterrent power. During this time, Trump's state cannot be described as stable. Negotiation goals keep changing, diplomatic trips are canceled at the last minute, and he keeps tweeting that "Iran is about to collapse," but Iran continues to do what it does. Aaron David Miller from the Peterson Institute said it bluntly: "What he wants is an Iranian version of Delcy Rodriguez, but what he is most likely to get is a Kim Jong-un of the crypto world." In other words, he may have underestimated the complexity of this showdown, thinking he could copy and paste, but instead, he has fallen deeper into a self-created maze. Rather than advancing step by step, it’s more like he’s getting lost in a maze of his own making. The Treasury is targeting crypto channels—it's actually a cat-and-mouse game. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin announced the freezing of $344 million in crypto assets linked to Iran, and Tether immediately complied by freezing the addresses. The fact that centralized stablecoins can be frozen with a single click is no longer a theoretical exercise, but a real operational example. However, sanctions have always been two-way. Iran's crypto trading volume is expected to remain at the tens of billions level by 2025, and the local exchange Nobitex has long been converting excess oil and gas resources into Bitcoin, essentially digitizing energy exports. The more you block centralized channels, the more they will dive into privacy chains, mixers, and decentralized exchanges. This is not a prediction; it is already happening. The tighter the compliant channels are, the deeper the gray paths will be dug. Looking ahead, this could be an endless cat-and-mouse game, where one layer of blockage gives rise to the next layer of more hidden infrastructure, until you can no longer distinguish who is compliant and who is in the gray market. Oil prices above $100, fear index at 33, Bitcoin down to 76K—risk-hedging narratives are running naked. Brent surged to 111, WTI broke 100, and the fear index dropped to 33, with the entire network filled with risk-hedging sentiment. According to the "digital gold" narrative, Bitcoin should rise at this time. The reality is that it was clearly rejected around 80,000 and slid all the way down to 76,000, with over $100 million in long positions liquidated. When geopolitical crises arise, Bitcoin kneels in respect first. The reason is not complicated. Large funds still treat Bitcoin as a high-beta risk asset, not a safe haven. Rising oil prices push up inflation expectations, which in turn compresses the Federal Reserve's space for rate cuts; the pressure of interest rate paths on crypto assets is far more tangible than the narrative of "non-sovereign assets." At such times, the market buys liquidity expectations, not narratives. The more stubborn the inflation, the further away the rate cuts, and the harder it is for Bitcoin to lift its head. In the short term, this geopolitical risk-hedging narrative cannot hold. The oil market will take at least four to six months to recover, inflationary pressures will not ease, and the Federal Reserve has no motivation to loosen. The "geopolitical risk premium" is being replaced by "interest rate risk discount." But looking a bit further ahead, this narrative will not die; it is just temporarily stunned. If long-term blockades really force a larger-scale sovereign-level on-chain demand—such as Iran being compelled to conduct oil settlements on-chain on a larger scale—then Bitcoin's role as digital gold may return in a stronger form after the storm. The only question is, before returning to that narrative, how many rounds of deleveraging the market still has to endure. This is the current situation: geopolitical conflicts are escalating, Bitcoin is falling along with risk assets, the risk-hedging narrative is temporarily ineffective, but the game of on-chain regulation and anti-regulation is accelerating. It looks chaotic, but the logic is actually very clear; it just doesn't favor the bulls.

4.29 Afternoon | Big and Small Coins, Don't Get Fooled by the Spike Brothers, good afternoon. That spike yesterday on the big and small coins was pretty intense, right? How many people got swept off the bus? BTC | Is it a false breakdown or a real test? Just keep an eye on this level The big coin took a dive yesterday, hitting a low around 75623, then slowly recovered back above 76234. This kind of movement can be boiled down to two possibilities: 1. The main force is washing out positions, deliberately triggering long stop losses, then pulling back up. 2. It’s really tired, unable to rebound, and continues to slide down. How to differentiate? Watch 76767. · If it can regain above 76767, then the previous downward trend is basically over, and the market will first aim for the key level of 77370. · After hitting 77370, only a true breakout can lead to 78561. Otherwise, it’s just a rebound, so don’t shout "bull market" at the first sign of a rise. Bottom line: 75623 If it breaks below this and can’t recover, don’t hesitate, long positions should exit, and look down to 74973. · Right-side long: If it breaks through 76570 with volume, I will directly enter a position, placing the stop loss below the recent low. · Right-side short: If it breaks down 76133 with volume and fails to reclaim, I will short. · Hourly chart stabilizing above 76570: Look up to 77399 - 78504; if it can’t hold, it’s nothing. · 4-hour closing below 75985: Look down to 74950 - 73718. 77370 is the dignity line for bulls, 75623 is the bottom line. If it breaks the latter, don’t fight it. --- ETH | Converging to a point, time to choose a direction The small coin hit a low around 2251 yesterday, which is a small support, and has bounced back. It’s now still grinding in a gradually narrowing range, with resistance around 2311. · If it can break through 2311, then the hurdle at 2295 will also be cleared, opening up space above: 2338 → 2381. · If it can’t break through, it will have to test 2251 again, forming a double bottom before pushing up. · Right-side long: If it breaks through 2295 with volume, I’ll chase it directly; if it’s a false breakout and comes back, I’ll stop loss. · Right-side short: If it breaks down 2278 with volume, I’ll short, no pattern. · Left-side dip buy: If it pulls back to 2235 and holds, I’ll take a long position, placing the stop loss at 2196. Additionally, I’ll place a short order around 2381 to test it, with unconditional stop loss at 2416. This position has a decent risk-reward ratio. Some brothers like to set grid orders or catch spikes, so I’ll place a long at 2177, with a stop loss at 2133. But be careful, if it really gets to this level, it means 2251 has failed, so don’t go heavy on the position. Pressure / Support to take a look: · Upper: 2295 / 2338 / 2381 · Lower: 2258 / 2221 / 2175 · 4-hour break below 2267: Look down to 2221 - 2171 · If the big coin can’t hold 77370, treat all rises as rebounds, don’t shout "bull market" at the first rise. · If the small coin can’t break 2311, it’s the end of the monkey market, with spikes up and down, don’t chase the rise or fall. · Having a stop loss isn’t about fearing losses, it’s about preventing you from holding on until you explode. I’ve seen too many people go from floating profits to liquidation, just one word: greed. · If you’re wrong, admit it; if you’re right, take it. Don’t fall in love with the market.

LayerZero has committed over 10,000 ETH to support Aave following the recent Kelp DAO vulnerability incident that has stirred up quite a commotion. Honestly, I have a lot of feelings about this and want to share some heartfelt thoughts with everyone. # LayerZero承诺超1万枚ETH支持Aave To be honest, seeing the loss of $292 million and then looking at the $23 million that LayerZero has put forward, my first reaction is that this compensation is really far from enough. The root of the whole issue lies in the configuration vulnerabilities of the underlying infrastructure. As a core participant, they should bear the corresponding responsibility, but this amount doesn't even cover the tip of the iceberg of the losses, let alone compensate the users who were truly affected. Saying they are taking responsibility feels more like a symbolic gesture out of helplessness, and it honestly leaves a bad taste in my mouth. Looking at the current state of the DeFi space, when a security incident occurs, there is no accountability or safety net, and instead, it has become the norm to rely on industry crowdfunding to fill the gaps. Many people say this is a sign of industry maturity and a reflection of decentralization, that everyone is banding together to weather the storm. But if you think about it calmly, isn't this just enabling bad behavior? The underlying protocols are only focused on moving forward and expanding, neglecting security issues, thinking that if something goes wrong, the entire industry will help cover the losses, so they don't have to bear the full cost themselves. Over time, who will still prioritize security? This is not maturity; it is clearly laying hidden dangers for the entire industry. And then there's the 71 million ETH frozen by Arbitrum, which still hasn't been unfrozen. It cannot be denied that freezing the hacker's assets has indeed prevented greater losses, but I can't help but wonder: what kind of boundaries should the DAO's emergency powers have? The most precious aspect of blockchain is its resistance to censorship and immutability. This time it is aimed at hackers, and everyone feels it's fine, but once this door is opened, who will define what constitutes an "emergency situation"? Who can guarantee that this power won't be abused? Clearly, this is a decentralized industry, yet it relies on the emergency decisions of a few to maintain stability, which is quite concerning. Having been involved in DeFi for so long, I sincerely hope this industry can get better and better. But with unclear security responsibilities and vague governance boundaries, relying solely on collective firefighting will ultimately not lead to long-term success. I just hope that in the future, the underlying protocols can take on more responsibility and have less luck, and that the industry can have fewer vulnerabilities and more peace of mind.